Publications

Insolvencies are expected to level off or to increase slightly in 2019, in line with the forecast of a modest 2% increase in Dutch business failures.

Many smaller retailers lack the flexibility and financial means to adapt business models to changing consumer habits, and the credit risk remains elevated.

Retailers´ margins are expected to decrease further due to the fierce competitive market environment in most segments and increased price transparency.

Profit margins of retailers in the online segment to increase slightly in 2019, while brick-and-mortar retailers face continued margin pressure.

The number of payment delays and protracted defaults is expected to remain high in 2019, due to ongoing cash flow problems and restricted access to loans.

Even larger consumer durables retailers could face troubles due to increased financial exposure after acquisitions and the difficult economic environment.

Good payment behaviour in the household appliances, furniture and consumer electronics segments over the past two years, and no major changes are expected.

Both payment delays and insolvencies are expected to increase in the coming six months, mainly affecting smaller consumer durables retailers in Belgium.

With its large population, growing middle class and increasingly modern spending habits Indonesia's retail sector is one of the most promising in Asia.

China´s economic growth is forecast to slow down to 6% while downside risks have increased and business insolvencies will increase further in 2019

India´s economic outlook for 2019 and 2020 remains robust with about 7% growth, but a weak banking sector and high corporate indebtedness are concerns.

Indonesia´s short-term economic prospects are generally positive, but it remains vulnerable to sharply decreasing capital flows to emerging markets.

Japan´s export growth will slow down due to lower global trade expansion, but domestic demand will underpin the economic expansion of about 1% in 2019.

The export sector increasingly benefits from relocation of export-oriented industries away from China, due to Vietnam’s relatively low production costs.

Private consumption and public infrastructure investments sustain Thailand´s economic growth in 2019 and 2020, but high household debt remains an issue.

Economic growth is expected to slow down somewhat in 2019 and 2020, mainly due to lower export growth and the cooling down of the Chinese economic cycle.

Due to its high dependency on international trade, Singapore is highly susceptible to global protectionism and a hard landing of the Chinese economy.

Major infrastructure investment is necessary in order to increase private investments and to safeguard high economic growth rates in the long term.

Due to its high dependency on international trade, South Korea is highly susceptible to global protectionism and a hard landing of the Chinese economy.

Taiwan´s economic expansion is likely to moderate in 2019 and in 2020, as both global trade growth and mainland China´s import demand have cooled down.