Publications

GDP is forecast to increase by more than 3% in 2017 and 2018, as household spending is spurred by low interest rates and an improving labour market.

Private consumption is driven by wage growth while export growth is driven by Eurozone demand and the country´s improved international competitiveness.

Hungary´s economic growth is expected to rebound in 2017 and 2018 after a slowdown in 2016, but the high level of external debt remains a major weakness.

Despite further growth, Poland is susceptible to a potential end of the Eurozone recovery. Adverse economic policies could dampen investor sentiment.

GDP is expected to grow 4.2% in 2017 and 3.7% in 2018, driven strong private consumption and rising investments including structural funds from the EU.

Despite the current rebound the long-term prospect for higher growth rates is subdued due to structural weaknesses and the negative impact of sanctions.

Growth is expected to remain above 3% in 2017 and 2018, but the economy remains vulnerable to adverse developments in the automotive sector.

GDP growth is robust, but risks in the banking and corporate sectors have increased while high dependence on capital inflow remains a major vulnerability.

In 2017, 92.7% of respondents in Brazil reported late payments from their domestic B2B customers and 86.5% in respect to their foreign B2B customers.

After a minor increase from 47.6% in 2015 to 48.4% in 2016, the percentage of overdue B2B invoices appears to be flattening out, rising to 48.8% in 2017.

The short-term outlook remains satisfying, but Brexit will surely have a major impact on domestic car sales and British car exports in the mid-term.

Besides the risk of a sales downturn, the economic policies of the Trump administration could pose a potential challenge for the US car industry.

As more and more carmakers rush to enter into the electric and hybrid car segment, annual capacity in China is about to exceed 7 million units by 2020.

Automotive suppliers´ margins remain structurally under pressure, as the powerful car manufacturers demand greater productivity, coupled with lower prices.

The level of insolvencies in the automotive sector is low compared to other Italian industries, and business failures are expected not to increase in 2017.

A large number of small supplier businesses could face higher business and credit risks in the future as margins have declined and challenges increase.

The automotive sector faces decreasing domestic sales due to a decrease in population and a growing share of elderly citizens as well as tax hikes.

The Spanish automotive industry continues to benefit from the on-going economic rebound of the domestic economy as well as from increasing car exports.

The increasing importance of Big Data and embedded technology/electronics is expected to lead to increased M&A activities in the supplier segment.

Robust sales have kept profit margins of car producers and suppliers stable, and these are expected to maintain their current level in the coming months.