Publications

After a weak performance in 2019, the Thai economy is facing major challenges this year, as exports and tourism have severely declined

The annual survey of B2B payments behaviour in the USMCA reveals a huge rise in the total value of long overdue invoices

Pandemic-induced cash flow pressure on US businesses is reflected by widespread deterioration of B2B customer credit risk

Additional time is needed to fully assess the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Canadian economy

It is difficult to pin down predictions over the ultimate impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the Mexican economic system

The economic contraction will deepen and last longer, while a debt restructuring settlement has not yet been reached

The economic contraction will lead to a sharp increase in business insolvencies.

The rapid spread of Covid-19 across the globe is taking a heavy economic toll on both advanced and emerging economies. Lockdowns reduce consumption opportunities and create supply-side shocks.

A recession in 2020 despite massive stimulus measures.

Business performance and credit risk has deteriorated in all main industries in India, thus worsening the insolvency outlook this year.

The impact of pandemic on its main export destinations is putting pressure on the external trade flows of Taiwan’s export reliant economy.

Like all economies around the world, the UAE is dealing with an unprecedented disruption of business activity and tourism

The global economic downturn triggered by the coronavirus pandemic has severely affected Indonesia’s economic performance.

Hong Kong businesses strengthened their credit risk management processes in order to better handle the risk of liquidity constraints due to the pandemic-induced economic crisis.

In the current challenging economic times, it is essential for Chinese businesses focus on strengthening their customer credit risk management and debt collection processes.

Singapore’s economy is strongly dependent on international trade and highly integrated in the Asian supply chain. This makes it highly vulnerable to changes in the global trading environment

A deep recession remains a downside risk.

The oil price has plummeted since the beginning of 2020 as the coronavirus is negatively affecting demand, while oil producers are entangled in a price war.

Total investment in domestic construction decreased 4% in 2019.

Lower global trade, ongoing trade policy uncertainty, less demand from China and the ICT downcycle have an immediate impact on Singapore's export-driven economy.

Construction is a significant contributor to the Australian economy, accounting for 8.1% of GDP.

Construction activity decreased towards the end of 2019 against the backdrop of weaker economic growth and political issues (shifting Brexit deadlines and a snap general election in December).

According to Statistics Poland, output of construction and assembly works increased 2.6% in 2019.

Dutch construction contributes approximately EUR 70 billion to, and accounts for 4.5% of GDP.

According to the national association of construction companies (ANCE), in 2019 construction investment increased 1.7% year-on-year, to about EUR 130 billion.

Growth of French GDP is expected to slow down further in 2020, and the outlook for the construction sector is rather subdued across all major segments.

Despite low confidence and modest 1.2% GDP growth in 2019, the construction sector performed quite well in terms of volume, and value added increased more than 2%.

Over the past years construction investment and valued added grew at a faster rate than GDP, benefitting from robust economic growth in Spain, increased foreign investment and low interest rates.

The coronavirus outbreak arrives at a time when global growth is already expected to slow and negatively impacts growth and insolvencies.

The herculean task of restructuring Argentina's debt is underway but the risk of a disorderly default remains high.

Despite increasing clouds on the horizon, there remain several bright spots for export opportunities in emerging markets.

US economic growth started to slow down last year, with GDP expected to expand 2.3% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020.

Andrés Manuel López Obrador of the the leftist Morena party governs with a strong political mandate, as a Morena-led coalition has a majority in both houses of Congress.

As in 2019, Canada´s GDP growth is expected to remain below its long-term trend in 2020 due to sluggish domestic demand and lower export growth.

A hard Brexit and an escalation of EU-US trade disputes are downside risks for export-dependent food companies in the olives/olive oil and meat segments.

In the food retail sector smaller and independent businesses are struggling to remain profitable due to fierce competition and high price pressure.

Food sales growth continues, and the economic impact of the USMCA agreement on consumers and food supply chains is expected to be relatively small.

Despite efforts of food exporters to diversify shipments away from Britain a hard Brexit remains a major threat, potentially leading to more insolvencies.

In the Belgian food retail segment a comprehensive price war cannot be ruled out for the future, potentially forcing many businesses out of the market.

The ongoing drought has put additional pressure on margins industrywide due to higher input costs, and many businesses are struggling to break-even.

Larger players continue to push the supply chain on price and longer payment terms, adding cash flow challenges to mainly smaller food businesses.

While businesses´ profits are still stable and financials mainly solid, environmental issues pose a potential major challenge for agriculture and food.

Insolvencies are expected to increase by about 1%-2% in 2020, mainly in the troubled meat segment and the beverages and fruit & vegetables subsectors.

The ongoing concentration process in the domestic market will increasingly put small retailers with a poor capacity to generate cash flow under pressure.

A modest margin rebound, but commodity prices, price wars between retailers, changing consumer habits and difficulties in staff recruitment remain issues.

While several Brexit postponenements have provided food exporters with sufficient time to adapt, small retailers suffer from market price pressure.

Domestic metals and steel demand is increasingly affected by subdued investment in the construction sector and a marked demand slowdown from automotive.

Many businesses suffer from decreasing demand from key buyer sectors, high commodity prices, overcapacity, strong competition, and low profitability.

A modest increase in payment delays cannot be ruled out in the coming 12 months, but no substantial insolvency increase is expected for the industry.

The number of protracted payments and insolvencies was high in 2019, and is expected to increase further in 2020, mainly affecting private-owned producers.