Publications

Payment delays and business failures are expected to increase modestly in the coming twelve months, especially in the metal manufacturing segment.

For many businesses both demand and profit margins are expected to deteriorate further, with a moderate rebound expected in H2 of 2020 at the earliest.

The sector benefits from the lift of US import tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminium, with profit margins of steel businesses expected to improve again.

Demand for metals and steel is currently impacted by the slowdown in demand from automotive and reduced investment from other manufacturing industries.

Due to a high level of non-performing assets in the sector banks are now unwilling to provide credit to the industry, causing additional liquidity issues.

Lower demand coupled with decreasing sales prices and higher prices for iron ore have led to deteriorating margins of steel producers and distributors.

Competitive price pressure has led to deteriorationg profit margins for steel producers as well as steel and metals distributors over the past 12 months.

The global economy is losing steam in 2019 and 2020. As the trade war accelerates this, consumer resilience will help avoid recession.

Regaining investors’ trust will be key to Fernández’s success in reinvigorating the Argentinian economy, but it is not the only thing.

Ireland’s highly open economy is cooling off and demand in export markets is set to remain weak while the domestic economy faces increasing capacity constraints and lower government spending.

The UK is facing the highest increase in insolvencies in 2019 and 2020 in Western Europe.

In Italy, business insolvencies are expected to increase in 2019, by about 4%. This is due to economic stagnation, increased political uncertainty and tighter credit conditions.

Economic growth in Germany is expected to cool to 0.6% in 2019 down from 1.6% one year ago.

GDP growth in the Netherlands is expected to slow to 1.7% in 2019. After several years of sharp decreases in insolvencies, this year is likely to mark a turning point.

As economic growth decelerates, and the manufacturing sector struggles amid lower global trade, Western Europe expects to close the year with a 2.7% increase in insolvencies.

Worries over the impact of adverse external factors like US import tariffs and the Brexit decision on Polish export and investment growth remain.

In 2020 household consumption is expected to accelerate, sustained by further decreasing unemployment, low inflation, and a minimum wage increase.

The economy is highly integrated into international value chains, making it vulnerable to major foreign trade losses, especially in the automotive sector.

The forint remains vulnerable to international investors’ sentiment due to the elevated external and public debt levels and institutional issues.

As the economy is reliant on automotive-related exports to the Eurozone, especially to Germany, it is vulnerable to adverse developments in the industry.

The currency is subject to some volatility, and the country is vulnerable to capital outflows should there be adverse internal or external developments.

Despite a modest economic rebound the business performance and credit risk situation of several industries remains strained, especially in Dubai.

Beside deterioration of payment behaviour in the private sector, the number of payment delays in larger projects dependent on government funding is still high.

In 2019 and 2020 growth is expected to exceed 5%, supported by exchange rate liberalization, interest rate normalisation and increasing tourist arrivals.

The economy is currently forecast to expand by about 3.5% in 2020, however, this depends on decent performance in agriculture, tourism, and exports.

Slow reform progress and social tensions weigh on the medium-term outlook, while economic expansion remains heavily dependent on the security situation.

GDP growth is expected to recover only modestly as the oil fund is nearly depleted, and ongoing political uncertainty weighs on the economic performance.

Economic growth in Eastern Europe is projected to remain solid this year, despite losing steam mainly because of poor growth prospects for Turkey.

Economic growth in Romania is expected to slow down to around 3-3.1% this year, and to sink below 3% in 2020

Real GDP growth in Slovakia is forecast to remain strong – 3.3% – this year and to slow slightly down to 3.2% in 2020

Economic expansion in the Czech Republic is forecast to remain positive over the coming months, with an average growth rate of about 3% this year.

Financial conditions in Turkey will be tighter in the coming months.

Economic expansion in Bulgaria is expected to lose some momentum in 2019, but should remain strong at above 3%, spurred by robust household spending, strong wage growth and an improving labour market

Economic growth in Hungary gained momentum recently, with real GDP gains expected to reach 4.4% this year.

Iran continues to demonstrate economic resilience but prospects for integration into the world economy remain far off.

Argentina has introduced currency controls to stabilise peso in the run-up to elections.

The amount of suppliers facing insolvency will increase further in the coming 2-3 years, as many will find it hard to adapt to changing market conditions.

Many German Tier 2 suppliers face the issue that their products are easily substitutable, while their solvency and equity position is generally weak.

Any imposition of import tariffs on cars/car parts would severely impact suppliers in the Tier 2 segment where many businesses already show thin margins.

Small basic component parts producers often suffer from poor equity, while at the same time they face increasing difficulties obtaining bank finance.

While the automotive insolvency level has been low compared to other industries in the past, an increase of up to 3% is expected in the coming 12 months.

Suppliers active in the combustion engine parts and car metals segments are severely affected by deteriorating demand and a high level of competition.

US tariffs could severely impact Japanese suppliers of low value added/basic car parts, as OEMs could replace their products with tariff-free items.

Local-owned Tier 2 suppliers remain susceptible to commodity price changes and exchange rate volatility, with limited options to pass on higher prices.

Higher costs, reduced orders, price pressure and changes in the type of products demanded could put the finances of many smaller suppliers under stress.

Insolvencies are expected to increase by about 3% in the coming 12 months, mainly affecting car dealers, car part distributors and Tier 2 suppliers.

Larger suppliers could seize the opportunity of buying distressed smaller players in order to expand market share and bargaining power against OEMs.

Corporate insolvencies are on the rise globally due to the more challenging economic environment and high policy uncertainty.

Economic reforms are urgent, especially improving the governance in state-owned enterprises, as large contingent liabilities are of great concern.

Private sector debt developments in the US and China probably won’t trigger an economic crisis but could deepen a downturn, possibly triggered by the bilateral trade war.